Data Research, Vol. 6, Issue 1, Jun  2022, Pages 35-44; DOI: https://doi.org/10.31058/j.data.2022.61005 https://doi.org/10.31058/j.data.2022.61005

Long Term Electricity Forecasting for Planning and  Optimization at the Taninthayi Division Micro-Grid System Using LEAP

Data Research, Vol. 6, Issue 1, Jun  2022, Pages 35-44.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31058/j.data.2022.61005

Hninn Thiri Naing 1* , Hla Aye Thar 1

1 Department of Electrical Power Engineering, Faculty of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Yangon Technological University, Yangon, Myanmar

Received: 21 May 2022; Accepted: 3 June 2022; Published: 19 June 2022

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Abstract

The context in which many electricity systems find themselves is changing rapidly. Once viewed as an essential public service, many electricity systems are now facing the challenge of market liberalization, pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increasing fuel prices and fuel price volatility. In Myanmar, some regions are still electrifying micro-grid systems as they are far away from the national grid and geographical conditions. This study explored the long-term electricity forecasting for Taninthayi Region Micro-Grid System from 2021 to 2045. The Long-range Energy Alternating Pathways (LEAP) tool was utilized for the diverse scenarios analysis. Effective optimization and planning can be carried out for micro-grid systems based on accurate forecasting data. The lowest cost system developed by LEAP (optimum scenario) was used as a reference for examining future possible energy policy directions for micro-grid systems.

Keywords

Long Term Electricity Forecasting, Different Scenarios, Microgrid, Energy Planning, Long-Range Energy Alternating Pathways (LEAP)

Copyright

© 2017 by the authors. Licensee International Technology and Science Press Limited. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

References

[1] Dementjeva, N.; Siirde, A. Analysis of Current Estonian Energy Situation and Adaptability of LEAP Model for Estonian Energy Sector. Energetika, T. 2010, 56(1), 75-84.

[2] McPherson, M.; Karney, B. Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP model application of Panama׳s electricity sector. Energy Policy, 2014, 68(C), 146-157.

[3] Awopone, A.K. Optimizing Energy Systems of Ghana For Long-Term Scenarios. Ph.D Thesis, Brunel University London, 2017.

[4] Kumar, N.S.; Chary, P.H. Cooperative Optimal Control Strategy For Microgrid Under Grid-Connected Mode. Open Access International Journal of Science & Engineering, 2021, 6(6), 50-54.

[5] Ministry of Electricity and Energy. Annual Report of Taninthayi Division. Electricity Supply Enterprise (E.S.E.), Myanmar, 2020.

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