Urban Design, Vol. 2, Issue 1, Jun  2019, Pages 1-13; DOI: 10.31058/j.ud.2019.21001 10.31058/j.ud.2019.21001

Investigating the Effects of Fuel Price on Inter-City Transportation Utilizing System Dynamics Approach and Simulation (Case Study: Inter-City Transport, Iran)

Urban Design, Vol. 2, Issue 1, Jun  2019, Pages 1-13.

DOI: 10.31058/j.ud.2019.21001

Mohammad Reza Nasiri Jan Agha 1 , Morteza Bazrafshan 1 , Abbas Mahmoudabadi 2*

1 Islamic Azad University, Lahijan Branch, Guilan, Iran

2 Industrial Engineering Department, Mehrastan University, Guilan, Iran

Received: 27 February 2019; Accepted: 30 March 2019; Published: 28 April 2019

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Transportation system is known as a complex system composed of multiple variables and linear/non-linear feedback loops influenced by economic, geographical, social and environmental factors. Transport modeling is commonly proposed to evaluate and simulate the performance of system with or without inter-relations on transport system. In  the  present  research  work,  system  dynamics  approach  is  utilized  for modeling and simulating the intercity transportation in order to access the effects of fuel price on intercity roads traffic volume. The proposed model consists of internal interactions and relations on intercity transport system as well as simulation for validation. Sensitivity  analysis  has  been  done  based on four scenarios on various fuel price increment rates of 5%, 15%, 20% and 25% in three different periods of  five,  ten  and  twenty  years,  known  respectively  as  short,  medium  and  long  term periods. Simulation results revealed that during the above mentioned periods, commercial traffic on intercity roads are linearly grown up while the increasing rates of fuel prices has remarkable impacts on daily traveled vehicles over the intercity roads. Therefore, national authorities who are dealing with setting fuel prices should notice that policies on fuel prices have smooth impacts on intercity road traffic and should be carefully studied and investigated before taking decision.


Fuel Prices, Traffic Volume, Transportation, System Dynamic, Commercial Vehicles


© 2017 by the authors. Licensee International Technology and Science Press Limited. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


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