Energy Research, Vol. 2, Issue 3, Sep  2018, Pages 170-182; DOI: 10.31058/j.er.2018.23010 10.31058/j.er.2018.23010

A Pitfall in Pathways for Energy Transition: Underestimated Value of Long-Term High-Resolution Electricity Demand Projection

Energy Research, Vol. 2, Issue 3, Sep  2018, Pages 170-182.

DOI: 10.31058/j.er.2018.23010

Mingquan Li 1* , Rui Shan 1 , Mauricio Hernandez 1

1 Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, USA

Received: 7 October 2018; Accepted: 31 October 2018; Published: 26 November 2018

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Abstract

The importance of long-term high-resolution electricity demand projection has long been neglected. Given that the reliability of the electric power sector depends on a perfect balance of demand and supply at different time scales, projecting the temporal load shape and peak consumption is of paramount importance for the system’s capacity planning processes. Without projecting long-term (up to mid-century 2050 or longer) electricity demand at a high temporal resolution (at the hourly or sub-hourly level), it is impossible to devise effective strategies for energy transition, including integration of renewable energy, deployment of distributed energy resources and energy storage systems, improvement of end-use energy efficiency, and demand-side management. Climate change and the emergence of electric vehicles, which will drive up fluctuations of electricity demand, will make these strategies even more difficult to devise. The authors propose a roadmap to develop a bottom-up modeling tool that is capable of producing long-term high-resolution demand projections, with the incorporation of demography, building science, engineering, meteorological knowledge, and behavioral science.

Keywords

Electricity Demand, Energy Transition, High-resolution Projection, Energy Planning

Copyright

© 2017 by the authors. Licensee International Technology and Science Press Limited. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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