Waters, Vol. 1, Issue 1, Sep  2018, Pages 16-29; DOI: 10.31058/j.water.2018.11002 10.31058/j.water.2018.11002

Impacts of Climate Change on the Water Resources of Guder Catchment, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia

Waters, Vol. 1, Issue 1, Sep  2018, Pages 16-29.

DOI: 10.31058/j.water.2018.11002

Fikru Fentaw 1* , Bahiru Mekuria 2 , Abebe Arega 3

1 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Kombolcha institute of Technology (Kiot), Wollo University, Kombolcha, Ethiopia

2 School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Adama Science and Technology University, Adama, Ethiopia

3 Department Civil Engineering, institute of Technology, Hawasa University, Hawasa, Ethiopia

Received: 30 November 2017; Accepted: 15 January 2018; Published: 29 January 2018

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This study uses Climate Model outputs of HadCM3A2a and HadCM3B2a SRES climate scenarios and downscale the predictors into finer scale resolution using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) to simulate and project the climate at local scale in order to investigate the hydrological impact of possible future climate change in Guder catchment, Upper Blue Nile Basin (Ethiopia). The results, obtained from this climate model, were compared to the observational datasets for precipitation and temperature for the period 1990-2008. To estimate the level of impact of climate change, climate change scenarios of precipitation and temperature were divided into time windows of 30 years each from 2011 to 2100.The downscaled A2a and B2a emission scenarios result indicates a significant increasing trend in mean temperature and precipitation in all future time periods in the study catchment. We applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the water resources of the Guder River catchment to the scenarios of projected climate change. The model output shows that there may be an annual and seasonal increase in inflow volume for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios in three benchmark periods in the future. Potential evapotranspiration in the catchment will also increase up to 25%. Generally, results presented in this study can provide valuable insight to decision makers on the degree of vulnerability of Guder river catchment to climate change, which is important to design appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies.


Guder Catchment, Water Resources, SWAT Model, Climate Change, SDSM, SRES


© 2017 by the authors. Licensee International Technology and Science Press Limited. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


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